Session: 76

Mortality

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Summary

This paper describes the fit and the results of that fit of the ASSA2000 urban rural model to the following sub-Saharan countries: Botswana, DR Congo, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Zambia. In order to fit the models national prevalence estimates first had to be extrapolated as a weighted average from the sentinel site data on the basis of a distribution of the population over time. In addition to this the models require, inter alia, estimates of a base population, non-HIV fertility and mortality rates, and migration. These data were scanty in many of the countries but in most cases the authors made use of estimates of either the UN or the US Census Bureau, and where available a recent DHS. Other parameters were set in order to best reproduce the pattern of prevalence in the past taking into account any known changes in behaviour. The paper presents various summary statistics for each of the countries, including 4q1, 45q15, e0, and numbers of infected people, and numbers of AIDS deaths. The models can be downloaded for use by researchers.

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