Session: 89

Life

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Summary

It is known that induced abortions have a different hormonal impact on cell development from full term pregnancies so that there are different consequences as regards the subsequent risk of breast cancer for women. Breast feeding and use of hormonal contraceptives are also considered relevant risk factors. For England, Age at First Birth and Childlessness are considered additionally. 

This paper reports analysis of British data ,which is national data for the two jurisdictions, England & Wales and Scotland, on breast Cancer incidence in relation to Abortion and Live Births for successive birth cohorts of women. Comparison is also made using data from Sweden, Finland and the Czech Republic. 
With breast cancer incidence as response variable and pregnancy related factors as explanatory variables a regression model is fitted. Using this linear regression model forecasts of future incidence of breast cancer are made for future years.

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Patrick Carroll studied mathematics at Trinity College Cambridge and also holds the Cambridge Diploma in mathematical Statistics. He got most of his actuarial training at the Prudential in London. And for ten years he was an academia lecturer in Statistics and Actuarial Science at The City University in London. Presently he is with an independent educational charity set up to research pensions and demographic topics and is unusual in working on charitable basis.

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