We are somewhat barking up the wrong tree with our heavy emphasis on getting ever more information and hoping that better technical methods will solve existing futures, especially crisis emergence, assessment shortfalls. The core issue in fostering improved human understanding about both emerging normal and crisis change is learning to better use the assessment tools at hand rather than constantly thinking that some next new method or data improvement will solve insight and foresight problems. There are things to be achieved in terms of cognition, method usage, and using concepts like entanglement and embeddedness to enhance performance. Three interconnected sub-themes will be addressed from prize-winning work in each area to attack the 'big issue' of how we get better now: 1) Using existing information and assessment approaches more effectively to understand emerging futures. In short, understanding what excellence at judging 'normal' change looks like. 2) Using insights about the dynamics of assessment failure that enfold mainstream analysts and organizations pre-crisis so as to better foresee and time an emerging crisis (Using their failure to comparative advantage), and 3) Looking at how post crisis one can better foresee how/why different societies recover - bounce back - in their particular way. Let's explore how the scientific community needs to improve human practice regarding change assessment and futures forecasting?

04-A: Improved Forecasting through a Different Focus

Guntram Werther