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Modelling Mortality for COVID 19
The after effect following the Pandemic is not pretty – both economically and on human lives.
This webinar will focus on the observations following the Covid 19 Pandemic towards human mortality experience and modern actuarial techniques to project and manage future similar (un)expected crisis to mortality experiences.
When it comes to the impact of COVID-19 on mortality, it is necessary to consider not only the direct impacts but secondary impacts, such as suicide. We will present an analysis of Covid 19 on excess mortality using the Lee Cater model and Japanese data set.
Following from there, we will present more modern Mortality models to incorporate jump effects to capture the adverse mortality shocks which might be caused by population events such as pandemics. Finally, the research will demonstrate three discrete time mortality jump models, which differ in terms of the duration of the jumps - transitory or permanent, frequency of the jumps - comparing models by using Spain, Sweden and Japan mortality data and analyse their ability to capture the mortality deterioration caused by several population events over the years including COVID-19 pandemic.
May 19, 2023