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AFIR-ERM Colloquium: Nürnberg, Germany
1-3 October 1996

PresentersPresentation
Susan GoslingActive Asset Allocation in the UK: The Potential to Add Value
Hklyette Geman' and Marc YorPricing and Hedging Double-Barrier Options: A Probabilistic Approach
Falco R. ValkenburgManagers do not Lean Back: A Profit Testing Model that Evaluates Scenario Dependent
Management Decisions
Marliese UhrigExamination of a Two-Factor Bond Option Valuation Model
Willi UferThe “Value at Risk” Concept for Insurance Companies
Ken SugitaChange of Japanese Regulation of Corporate Pension and its Impact
Thomas G. StephanAsset Allocation Optimization for German Life Insurers
Thomas G. StephanA Time Series Analysis of an Asset Class Returns Model for the German Capital Market
Michael SchrGderThe Value at Risk Approach
Heinrich R. SchradinPCS Catastrophe Insurance Options A New Instrument for Managing Catastrophe Risk
Christian SchmittOption Pricing Using EGARCH Models
Udo Schmidt-MohrVolatility Forecasting with Nonlinear and Linear Time Series Models: A Comparison
Gerhard Scheuenstuhl' and Rudi Zagst'Optimal Optioned Portfolios with Confidence Limits on Shortfall Constraints
Peter SchenkSimulation of Asset/Liability-Profiles as Part of an Insurance Management Simulation Game
Prank Nielsen, Simon JuenAn Integrated Valuation and Risk Model for C&man Fixed-Income Portfolios
John M. Mulvey’ and A. Eric ThorlaciusThe Towers Perrin Global Capital Market Scenario Generation System
Martin J Muir nnd Richard J SquiresAsset/Liability-Modelling for Life Offices allowing for Dated Fixed Interest Investments and Performance Related Changes in Liability
Carlo Mottura and Marco S. RistucciaOptimal Control Strategies versus Supervisory Rules Suggestions from Bond Portfolio Selection Theory
Matthias MollerPricing PCS-Options with the Use of Esscher-Transforms
Shyam MehtaDevelopment of an Inflation Model
Gennady Medvedev and Samuel H. CoxThe Market Price of Risk For Affine Interest Rate Term Structures
Piera MazzoleniPrudence and Intertemporal Utility
Ho&Minh LamStudy and simulation of the sensitivity of a securities portfolio (French paper)
Annette KurzPricing of Equity-linked Life Insurance Policies with an Asset Value Guarantee and Periodic Premiums
Wolfgang KiirstenBank Risk, Regulation and Financial Futures Policy
Josef KriecherbauerValuation of Fixed-Income Securities with Uncertain Cash-Flow
Lasse Koskinen' and Tarmo PukkilaAn Application of the Vector Autoregressive Model with a Markov Regime to Inflation Rates
Sergio G. Koreisha' and Tarmo PukkilA New Approach for Identifying Seasonal Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting Models
Alexander KiinigConsequences of Differing Actuarial Interest Rates on the Profitability of an Endowment Policy: An Analysis in Consideration of Stochastic Investment Income and a Simple Profit Participation System
Alexander KempP and Olaf Kern*Trading System and Market Integration
Jochen V. Kaduff Shortfall-Probability-Based Diagrams of Efficient Frontiers
J. Ph. JousseaumeParadoxes Regarding the Calculation of Options The Keys to the Enigma …
Jacques Janssen, Malika Saib et Khamiss TaousTechniques d’Estimation pour le Modble de Black & Scholes
Werner HiirlimannMean-Variance Portfolio Selection under Portfolio Insurance
Michael W. HopfAsset Allocation Implementation with Structured Guaranteed Investments
Christian HippOptions for Guaranteed Index-linked Life Insurance
Elisabeth HehnDerivatives in Risk Management
M. Hartpence and J. SikoravTactical Asset Allocation: Predictability of Capital Markets Using Error Correction Models
Faris Hama and Jacques JanssenLinear Approach for Solving LargeScale Portfolio Optimization Problems in a Lognormal Market
Niklaus Buehlmann, StCphane Junod and Hans-Fred0 ListBaseline for Exchange Rate - Risks of an International Reinsurer
Wolfgang Biihler, Marliese Uhrig, Ulrich Walter and Thomas WeberAn Empirical Comparison of Valuation Models for Interest Rate Derivatives
Pierre BrugiBre’Optimal Portfolio and Optimal Trading in a Dynamic Continuous Time Framework
Vincent BrousseauValuation of Futures Contracts and Yield Options (French Paper)
D. C. Bowie and R. S. ClarksonAn Exploratory Analysis of the Structure of the FTSE 100 Index
Remi Bourrette and Etienne TrussantOptimal Fund Design for Investors with Holding Constraints
Jean-Franvis Boulier, Stkphane Michel and Vanessa WisniaOptimizing Investment and Contribution Policies of a Defined Benefit Pension Fund
Guillaume Bouet et Richard DahudExtension of Financial Concepts in Fuzzy Calculus and Application to Cash Flow Matching (French paper)
Gianna Roero Foruhar Madjlessi and Costanza TorricelliThe Information in the Term Structure of German Interest Rates
Gianna Boero and Enrico CavallilForecasting the Exchange Rate: A Comparison between Econometric and Neural Network Models
Marida Rertocchi Jitka Dupacova and Vittorio MoriggiaSensitivity Analysis on Inputs for a Bond Portfolio Management Model
Gunther BaumAsset/Liability-Management for Pension Funds: Some General Remarks
Hans-Jochen BartelsVariations on a Theme of Bruno Dupire
Anna Rita Bacinello and Fulvio OrtuArbitrage Valuation and Bounds for Sinking-Fund Bonds with Multiple Sinking-Fund Dates
Robert Asburst, Gerald Bhmdell, Philip Booth, Martin Cumberworth, Glynn Griffiths and Guy MorrellSecuritisation and Institutional Property Investment
Norbert AmmonAccounting and Disclosure Conventions for Derivatives in US, UK and German Banks
Frank Altrock and Andreas WingstenProper Discounting when Tax Payments are Postponed
Pascal AlphonseOpportunity for Arbitrage Measured to the 'Arbitrage Operation' Arbitrage Analysis: Intraday Valuation Analysis of the CAC 40 Futures Contract
Peter Albrecht, Alexander Kihig, Raimond Maurer, and Heinrich R. SchradinAu Actuarial Approach to Determine the Required Capital for Portfolios of Options with Default Risk
Peter Albrecht, Hermann F.W. Biihrle and Alexander K6nigValue-at-Risk: A Risk Theoretical Perspective with Focus on Applications in the Insurance Industry
Andrew AdamsComponents of Risk for Investment Trusts
Michael Adam, Raimond Maurer and Matthias MollerEvaluation of Combined Stock and Option Strategies Using Excess-Chance- and Shortfall-Risk-Measure
Michael Adam, Peter Albrecht and Raimond MaurerShortfall Risks and Excess Chances of Option-Based Rollover Hedge-Strategies with Respect to
Alternative Target Returns: Empirical Evidence from the German Stock Market
Masahiko Fujiki, Msc, PhD, FIA, FIAJMeasurement of Risk
Andreas Frick’, Ralf Herrmann, Martin Kreidler, Alexander Narr and Detlef SeeseGenetic-Based Trading Rules - A New Tool to Beat the Market With? First Empirical Result
Peter AlbrechtActuarial Approaches to Financial Risks
Jon Exley, Shyam Mehta and Andrew SmithMarket Effhziency
Jon JWey and Shyam MehtaAsset Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes
Henry EssertA General Framework for Financial Risk
Cees Dert') and Bart Oldenkamp')Optioned Portfolios: The Trade-off between Expected and Guaranteed Returns
Steve CraigheadInsolvency Testing, Extreme Value Statistics and Resampling
Salvatore Correnti, CFA, Paul A. Nealon, FSA and Stephen M. Sonlin, CFADecomposing Risk to Enhance ALM and Business Decision Making for Insurance Companies
Michael Cohen’and Marlyn BilodeauAssessing the Option Premium in Hybrid Pension Plans
Robert S. ClarksonA Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Capital Market Bebaviour
Yueyun Chen’and Iskandar S. HarnwIndirect Cost, Reinsurance Pricing, and the Availability ofDisaster Insurance
Gilbert0 Castellani, Massimo De Felice ‘I, Franc0 Moriuu and Carlo MotturaIT-Supported Solutions for Asset-Liability Management: The Alm-Max Approach
Andrew J.G. CairnsModelling Bond Yield and Forward-Rate Curves for the Financial Times Actuaries British Government Securities Yield Indices
Andrew J.G. CairnsContinuous-Time Pension-Fund Modelling

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