Climate Change: Can Extreme Value Theory Predict the "End of Times"?

Following the works of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2022, many climatologists have now accepted the notion of climate change. Despite all the research done, it is still a very complex concept to put into actionable models in the insurance industry. Such difficulty lies, among others, primarily in the short-time horizon that commercial companies contemplate. Typically, a business plan will not project any developments beyond a 5-year horizon, while climate change moves more slowly, where the IPCC typically looks at horizons of dozens of years.

Through the application of Extreme Value Theory, this presentation intends to bridge the gap by attempting to see how the parameters of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (hereinafter “GPD”) fit into the estimated damage values of major catastrophes that evolve over the period of time 1946 – 2023. Based on the time dependency of the GPD parameters, this presentation will predict the exact year after which climate will become unpredictable and chaotic (see Smith (2003) and Bishop (2017)) hence bringing "the end of times”.

Speakers: Eric Dal Moro and Stéphane Loisel
Moderator: Ryutaro Yamada