2012 Joint Section Colloquium of AFIR-ERM, ASTIN and IAALS - Mexico City, Mexico
30 September – 4 October 2012
Life Insurance
IAALS: Linking Socioeconomic Characteristics to Policyholders’ Longevity and Liability Values in Weighted Mortality Models
In the first part of this webinar, we will analyze the effect of using weighted maximum likelihood estimation for survival models where the assigned weights depend on the sum assured – a common practice in life insurance to focus on the financial consequences of survivorship. In this context, we consider how these estimates may change when more granular mortality models are used that are based on the socioeconomic characteristics of policyholders.
During the presentation, we will highlight several practical considerations for developing weighted models for liability estimation and discuss the impact of such approaches on annuity liabilities. To illustrate this, we will present results using a real-world insurance dataset providing survival information on individuals who purchased annuities between 2015 and 2022 in the Netherlands. The analysis will include a financial test of fit to evaluate the performance of models.
In the second part of the webinar, we will discuss research findings on the potential influence of socioeconomic factors on annuitants' longevity, based on publicly available, area-level indicators. The analysis will present detailed results on variables that could be useful for modelling policyholder mortality in the Netherlands, and will compare these with the traditional approach of using age, gender and pension information as covariates.
Speaker: Andrey Ugarte Montero
Andrey Ugarte Montero is a postdoctoral researcher at the Research Center for Longevity Risk (RCLR) of the University of Amsterdam. He holds a master’s degree in Actuarial Science from the University of Lisbon in Portugal and a PhD in Actuarial Science from HEC Lausanne in Switzerland. His interests include actuarial modelling in life and health insurance and the financial consequences of longevity within an insurance context. He is also interested in the applications of machine learning and data science in the insurance sector. From December 2013 to August 2017, Andrey worked as an actuarial consultant for the firm EY (Ernst & Young) in Latin America. He’s also pursuing certification as an Associate/Fellow of the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
Moderator: Ernst Visser
Ernst is a Dutch actuary working for KPMG Financial Risk Management in The Netherlands. He has a master degree in physics and a master degree in actuarial science. In 2025 Ernst obtained an MBA degree with a thesis investigating the potential for disruption in the insurance industry. Ernst is a fully qualified member of the Dutch actuarial society. He has Over 30 years experience in consulting in the insurance industry
Speaker: Andrey Ugarte Montero
Andrey Ugarte Montero is a postdoctoral researcher at the Research Center for Longevity Risk (RCLR) of the University of Amsterdam. He holds a master’s degree in Actuarial Science from the University of Lisbon in Portugal and a PhD in Actuarial Science from HEC Lausanne in Switzerland. His interests include actuarial modelling in life and health insurance and the financial consequences of longevity within an insurance context. He is also interested in the applications of machine learning and data science in the insurance sector. From December 2013 to August 2017, Andrey worked as an actuarial consultant for the firm EY (Ernst & Young) in Latin America. He’s also pursuing certification as an Associate/Fellow of the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
Moderator: Ernst Visser
Ernst is a Dutch actuary working for KPMG Financial Risk Management in The Netherlands. He has a master degree in physics and a master degree in actuarial science. In 2025 Ernst obtained an MBA degree with a thesis investigating the potential for disruption in the insurance industry. Ernst is a fully qualified member of the Dutch actuarial society. He has Over 30 years experience in consulting in the insurance industry
Financial Risks
Liquidity Risk in Insurance: Perspectives from Life and P&C Actuaries
This is a joint webinar between AFIR ERM Section and Enterprise and Financial Risk Forum.
Liquidity risk arises from the inability to meet cash demands (e.g., from claims or policy surrenders) from readily available funds. While liquidity needs are normal for any business, insurers are also exposed to stress liquidity risk, such as from mass policy cancellations and from catastrophes. This webinar focuses on how companies might prepare for and manage liquidity during events that cause significant unexpected liquidity stress.
The session provides insights from both life insurance and property & casualty perspectives.
Speaker: Ralph Blanchard and Tamara Burden
Moderator: Taiga Yokoyama
Liquidity risk arises from the inability to meet cash demands (e.g., from claims or policy surrenders) from readily available funds. While liquidity needs are normal for any business, insurers are also exposed to stress liquidity risk, such as from mass policy cancellations and from catastrophes. This webinar focuses on how companies might prepare for and manage liquidity during events that cause significant unexpected liquidity stress.
The session provides insights from both life insurance and property & casualty perspectives.
Speaker: Ralph Blanchard and Tamara Burden
Moderator: Taiga Yokoyama
Members Only
AI / Data Science
Responsible and Human-Centric AI: Why It Matters for the Actuarial Profession
Amidst the recent flurry of activity around AI, actuaries will be in good company as they consider how to extract the benefits of AI advancements, while avoiding their downside risks. Actuaries that develop and deploy AI systems must consider how to deliver the potential gains in accuracy and speed, while avoiding risks like biased decision-making. At the same time, they must carefully consider how AI systems will integrate into employee workflows. Responsible AI and human-centric AI offer valuable guidance to address these issues and can assist actuaries in realising the benefits of AI.
Speaker: Maura Feddersen
Moderator: Ernst Visser
Speaker: Maura Feddersen
Moderator: Ernst Visser
Members Only
AI / Data Science
GPU’s for Actuarial Modeling, Hype or Hyper-drive?
This presentation will investigate if GPU technology is all hype or if it will be bringing the actuarial modeling space into hyper-drive. Learn about the history of actuarial computing, why GPU’s make sense for actuarial computations, what are the challenges and benefits of GPU’s and if GPU’s truly are the answer, what are the options available for insurers.
Speaker: Martin Brandt, FSA, FCIA
Session Moderator: Ernst Visser
Speaker: Martin Brandt, FSA, FCIA
Session Moderator: Ernst Visser
Members Only
Health
The Impact of COVID-19 and Other Pandemics on the Actuarial Profession
The COVID-19 pandemic, along with other major pandemics such as HIV/AIDS and the 1918 influenza pandemic, has highlighted critical challenges and opportunities that continue to reshape global perspectives and responses. These events have also had notable implications for the actuarial profession, affecting all practice areas. Drawing from its work on pandemic-related issues, the International Actuarial Association (IAA) has identified several key themes that have emerged from examining the effects of pandemics on actuarial practice. To address these, the IAA’s Pandemic Task Force and the Mortality Virtual Forum have produced four key papers:
- Lessons Learned from Pandemics
- Implications of COVID-19 Protection Gaps
- Implications of COVID-19 Data and Pandemic Modeling (to be released in Q1 2025)
- Excess Deaths Analysis: A technical paper reviewing mortality data from 21 countries and exploring various methods for calculating excess deaths.
This session aims to provide an overview of the IAA’s pandemic-related initiatives, foster understanding of the implications for the actuarial profession, and promote dialogue on the lessons learned from these global health crises and how the profession could prepare for the future.