Session: 59

Social Security

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Summary

The delimitation of expenses and revenues to determinate the economic benefit are carried out in the insurance company through the endowment to technical reserves. An incorrect estimation puts in danger the solvency and the business insurer. The usual calculation methods con not be the appropiate ones because it is required hypothesis adjusted to the phenomenon on order to justify their application.

The claims reserve includes not only I.B.N.R. claims in general insurance but also I.B.N.E.R. ones. Its estimation has vital importance to analyze insurance´s loss history and distribution.

The stochastic methodology is the most appropiate to control the error made in the estimations and to contrast in statistical terms the hypotheses carried out on the claims process, better say, the stochastic and dynamic methodology considering time as main variable (the evolution along time) based on the stochastic processes.

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic method based on Poisson´s processes to estimate the evolution of the number of clims providing a comprehensive example.

The delimitation of expenses and revenues to determinate the economic benefit are carried out in the insurance company through the endowment to technical reserves. An incorrect estimation puts in danger the solvency and the business insurer. The usual calculation methods con not be the appropiate ones because it is required hypothesis adjusted to the phenomenon on order to justify their application.

The claims reserve includes not only I.B.N.R. claims in general insurance but also I.B.N.E.R. ones. Its estimation has vital importance to analyze insurance´s loss history and distribution.

The stochastic methodology is the most appropiate to control the error made in the estimations and to contrast in statistical terms the hypotheses carried out on the claims process, better say, the stochastic and dynamic methodology considering time as main variable (the evolution along time) based on the stochastic processes.

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic method based on Poisson´s processes to estimate the evolution of the number of clims providing a comprehensive example.

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