The conventional view held by many is that the historical increase in life expectancy will continue throughout this century in most parts of the world. Some scientists even contend that most babies born today will reach 100 years of age. Yet, empirical evidence demonstrates that neither of these scenarios is likely. Rather, evidence has emerged indicating that two subgroups of the population are forming -- one that will experience more rapid increases in life expectancy than anticipated by conventional forecasting methods, and another that has already experienced declines in life expectancy or are about to do so.

Given the vast differences in longevity prospects among subgroups of the population across the globe, questions have arisen about the appropriateness of forced retirement at ages near 65 years. Dr. Olshansky will illustrate the significance of these trends by exploring what the retirement age should be today, hypothetically, given the secular changes in survival and longevity that have occurred since Social Security (or its equivalent in other countries) came into existence in the 20th century.

An important new effort is now underway to secure what has become known as the Longevity Dividend -- the social, economic and health benefits that would accrue to individuals and populations as a consequence of a successful effort to slow the aging process in people. Why is this initiative taking off now? How might it come about? And, what are the implications for the future course of health and longevity?