Session: 76

Mortality

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Summary

Recent mortality trends lead to the use of projected mortality tables when pricing and reserving for life annuities (as well as for other living benefits, such as Long Term Care benefits, whole life sickness benefits, etc.). However mortality patterns continuously evolve along time, so that any projection may reveal weak when used for pricing new contracts and reserving for in-force business. Hence, adjustments must be made in pricing and reserving bases. Monitoring mortality provides data, while an appropriate inference procedure must constitute the underlying model for assessing the adjustments. In this paper, inference about portfolio mortality trends is first focussed. Then, a Bayesian inference model is proposed, aiming at mortality adjustments based on prior information and statistical evidence. Some numerical examples illustrate the inference mechanism.