Session: 46

Education

Session: 76

Mortality

* * *

Summary

Recent mortality trends lead to the use of projected mortality tables when pricing and reserving for life annuities (as well as for other living benefits, such as Long Term Care benefits, whole life sickness benefits, etc.). However mortality patterns continuously evolve along time, so that any projection may reveal weak when used for pricing new contracts and reserving for in-force business. Hence, adjustments must be made in pricing and reserving bases. Monitoring mortality provides data, while an appropriate inference procedure must constitute the underlying model for assessing the adjustments. In this paper, inference about portfolio mortality trends is first focussed. Then, a Bayesian inference model is proposed, aiming at mortality adjustments based on prior information and statistical evidence. Some numerical examples illustrate the inference mechanism.

Session: 15, 37

Health Seminar

* * *

Ermanno Pitacco, Born on November 13, 1947 in Trieste (Italy). Degree in Economics, degree in Actuarial Science. Full Professor of Actuarial Mathematics, University of Trieste, Italy. Main fields of scientific interest: life and health insurance mathematics, pension mathematics, portfolio valuations. Full member of the Istituto Italiano degli Attuari (Italy). Affialiate member of the Institute of Actuaries (UK).

* * *