111-A
Two Views of the Financial Implications of Resource Limits
Friday, April 4, 2014: 8:00 a.m.
Maryland Suite AB (Washington Marriott Wardman Park)
We know that resource limits are of many types, including water, oil, and arable land. The financial implications of resource limits are not well understood, however. We present two views of these financial implications. Are the financial implications close at hand, affecting the financial system in both in the 2008-2009 recession, and in likely future recessions? Or can they only be expected to affect the financial system much later? Or are both near-term limits and distant limits issues that actuaries and insurers should be concerned about? Oliver Bettis will present results from a research project on limits to growth, commissioned by the IFoA and carried out by the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, led by Dr Aled Jones. This research focuses on the long term implications of resource limits to economic growth. A simple actuarial model will be presented which explores likely issues through scenario planning methodologies. Gail Tverberg will present research results showing that the financial system is already being affected by resource limits. Countries such as Greece and Spain are already feeling the effect of resource limits (high oil prices impacting their tourist revenue), providing a model of what may be ahead.
Presentation 1
Presentation 2
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