110-B
Earning Patterns of Vehicle Extended Warranties with Limited Odometer Cover: A Pure Risk Premium Approach

Friday, April 4, 2014: 8:00 a.m.
Virginia Suite A (Washington Marriott Wardman Park)
The timing of when to earn premium reserves of a vehicle extended warranty over its term (earning pattern) is supposed to closely resemble its risk profile. Vehicle extended warranty cover period is often set in terms of time and odometer limits. In this case, although earning patterns are specified on only a time dimension, there is still need to allow for odometer limits when determining earning patterns. To address this problem, this paper utilises a survival model of the time to cover the odometer limit distance to simulate the probability that a vehicle is within the odometer limit over the extended warranty term. These probabilities are then integrated in a pure risk premium framework to produce odometer-limit adjusted earning patterns. Data from a vehicle extended warranty provider is used to demonstrate the proposed method. The results demonstrate that considering odometer limits can significantly affect earning patterns, depending on the level of odometer limits applied.
Presentation 1
Fidelis T. Musakwa, PhD Candidate, University of Witwatersrand
Handouts
  • EW_ICA2014.pdf (363.4 kB)